分裂的世界：经济震荡与政治动荡席卷全球，从华盛顿到北京

华盛顿——周二，一连串令人不安的经济数据和爆炸性的政治危机席卷全球，揭示了世界主要大国深层次的裂痕以及小国动荡的不稳定性。在美国，政府发布了一项令人震惊的修正数据，承认劳动力市场比先前报告的要疲软得多，这让人们对该国的经济韧性产生了新的怀疑。与此同时，支撑着华尔街、看似势不可挡的人工智能热潮也显现出疲态。 在大西洋彼岸，法国政府在不到一年的时间里第二次垮台，使这个欧盟核心成员国陷入政治瘫痪。在中东，以色列针对卡塔尔境内的哈马斯领导层发动了一次大胆的空袭，有可能点燃一场更广泛、更危险的地区冲突。而在亚洲，尼泊尔一场反对政府过度干预的民众起义推翻了其总理；与此同时，在中国，官方日益高涨的民族主义言论，既体现在对外国批评者的制裁上，也体现在一场围绕战争的激烈但充满争议的国内辩论中。 这些并非孤立事件。它们相互关联，共同揭示出一个正在艰难应对经济不确定性、地缘政治联盟变迁以及日益跨越数字和物理边界的意识形态斗争的全球图景。 第一部分：摇摇欲坠的全球经济支柱 当日的新闻始于美国劳工部带来的一记严峻的经济警钟。在一份初步的年度修正报告中，该机构宣布，在截至今年3月的一年里，美国雇主创造的就业岗位比先前估计的少了91.1万个。这次有记录以来最大规模的修正，几乎将报告的就业增长减半，描绘出一幅劳动力市场在近期放缓迹象显现之前早已失去动力的画面。 美国劳工统计局修正后的数据，极大地加剧了人们对经济降温的担忧，并使美联储在下周利率决策前的路径变得更加复杂。尽管芝加哥商品交易所的交易员们仍普遍预计仅会温和降息25个基点，但就业市场的急剧恶化，让人们更加担心市场一直是在有缺陷的假设之上运行。现在的焦点转移到周四的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据上，这被视为可能影响美联储考量的最后一份主要经济报告。 另一篇《华尔街日报》的报道加剧了这种经济焦虑的暗流，报道指出，人工智能芯片巨头英伟达（NVIDIA）的“惊喜因素”正在消退。两年来，该公司以惊人的增长震惊了投资者，成为支撑美国股市的整个人工智能革命的风向标。但其最新的季度业绩虽然仍超出分析师预期，却显示了九个季度以来最窄的增长幅度。自财报公布以来，该公司股价已下跌6%，引发了全球投资者普遍关注的一个关键问题：人工智能热潮是泡沫吗？如果是，它何时会破裂？ 分析师指出两个因素削弱了英伟达的光芒。首先是简单的大数定律：对于一个企业巨头来说，维持迅猛的增长率变得越来越困难。其次是更具结构性的原因：英伟达完全依赖单一制造商——台湾积体电路制造公司（TSMC），这造成了一个任何财务上的成功都无法轻易克服的供应链瓶颈。尽管尚未出现失速的确切证据，但这篇报道反映了华尔街日益增长的谨慎情绪。在这里，少数科技巨头的超常表现掩盖了更广泛的经济脆弱性。 美国市场的这种紧张情绪与中国政策引发的短暂上涨形成对比。在香港，以碧桂园和世茂集团为首的陷入困境的中国房地产公司股价，在北京、上海和深圳等主要城市放宽购房限制后飙升。房地产板块指数创下近两个月来最大单日涨幅。 然而，这次反弹并未能改变中国房地产危机的严峻前景。即使周二飙升超过30%，世茂的股价今年以来仍下跌了63%，而更广泛的房地产板块则下跌了11%。此举与其说是一个解决方案，不如说是一种支撑这个一度是中国增长主要引擎的衰退行业的无奈之举。据大和证券的一位分析师称，市场的乐观情绪可能是由传言驱动的，即中共中央政治局将在本月晚些时候的会议上推出更实质性的房地产支持方案。 第二部分：地缘政治断层线加剧 在经济焦虑加剧的同时，以色列对卡塔尔多哈的哈马斯领导人发动的史无前例的袭击，点燃了地缘政治的紧张局势。这次袭击针对在卡塔尔首都开会的高级官员，代表着一种戏剧性的战术升级，将以色列打击该组织的战争远远超出了加沙地带，延伸到一个重要美国伙伴的领土上。卡塔尔是该地区最大的美军空军基地所在地，也一直是长达两年的冲突中的核心调解方。 以色列总理办公室迅速声称对此次行动负全部责任，称其为“完全独立的以色列行动”，并表示在行动发生前片刻才通知了美国。此举招致卡塔尔的尖锐谴责，并使华盛顿的外交平衡术变得复杂。 关于袭击效果的报道相互矛盾。《华尔街日报》指出，尚不清楚预定目标——被确认为哈马斯领导人哈利勒·哈亚（Khalil al-Hayya）和扎西尔·贾巴林（Zaher Jabarin）——是否被击毙。然而，彭博社援引多哈半岛电视台的消息来源报道称，包括哈亚在内的领导层在袭击中幸存下来。报道的差异凸显了冲突的迷雾，但其战略意图是明确的：以色列已表明，无论外交敏感性如何，它都愿意在任何地方追捕哈马斯领导人。这与以色列过去在1997年于约旦、2010年于迪拜的暗杀行动，以及2024年7月在伊朗炸死哈马斯最高政治领导人的致命爆炸一脉相承。 与此同时，在欧洲，这片大陆上最强大的政府之一垮台了。法国总理弗朗索瓦·贝鲁（François Bayrou）及其政府在国民议会以364票对194票的巨大差距输掉了一场不信任投票后被罢免。这次投票由一项极不受欢迎的预算提案引发，标志着总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙的政府在不到一年内第二次倒台，凸显了困扰该国的深刻政治功能失调。 在对议员们的最后一刻恳求中，贝鲁将法国的财政状况描述为一场“无声、隐秘、无形且无法承受的大出血”，并警告将出现“金融末日”。他的话未能说服一个四分五裂的议会，来自左右翼的民粹主义政党指责政治建制派利用恐惧策略来维持权力。法国的国家债务已激增至其经济产出的114%，其借贷成本现已超过国防预算。预计马克龙将接受贝鲁的辞职并任命一位新总理，但观察家们普遍悲观地认为，任何新政府都难以实现稳定，预示着法国政治将进入一个动荡的新篇章。 再往东，长期以来一直是欧盟内部俄罗斯最坚定的能源伙伴的匈牙利，通过与壳牌公司签署一份为期10年的天然气协议，向多元化迈出了重要一步。从2026年开始，匈牙利将通过捷克和德国的管道每年接收20亿立方米的天然气。尽管布达佩斯长期抵制欧盟到2027年逐步淘汰俄罗斯化石燃料的计划，但最近的事件可能迫使其不得不做出改变。分析人士认为，乌克兰近期摧毁了一条向斯洛伐克供应俄罗斯能源的关键管道，敲响了警钟，表明运输路线不再有保障。此举被视为一个务实但无奈的转变，显示该国政府似乎正在向地缘政治现实低头。 第三部分：人心、思想与互联网的争夺战 民众愤怒的力量在尼泊尔得到了生动的展现，在持续数日并导致19人死亡的暴力抗议后，总理卡德加·普拉萨德·夏尔马·奥利（K.P. Sharma Oli）的政府宣布辞职。这场危机于上周爆发，当时政府以法院命令为由，宣布全面禁止包括X、YouTube、Instagram和WhatsApp在内的主要社交媒体平台。 此举立即引发了猛烈的抗议，示威者与警察发生冲突，并冲破了国会大厦周围的路障。民众的不满很快从互联网禁令扩展到对政府腐败的长期积怨。周一晚间，政府屈服了，取消了禁令。但这为时已晚。周二，当抗议者放火焚烧他的私人住宅时，这位正在第四个任期内的资深共产主义政治家奥利宣布下台。 “作为一个所谓的政府，你们本应有胆量接受任何形式的抗议，”一位抗议者说道。“相反，你们露出了自己丑恶的真面目——杀戮、破坏，辜负了那些希望自己国家变得美丽和安全的孩子们。” 具有讽刺意味的是，为数不多被禁令豁免的平台之一是中国的TikTok，观察人士指出该平台遵守了政府的指令。这一事件凸显了一场围绕言论自由的全球斗争，公民们正在反抗那些试图控制数字公共广场的政府。 这场围绕言论自由的斗争在中国以另一种形式出现，北京针对一位新认定的“汉奸”发起了一场惩罚性运动。北京宣布制裁石平，一位在中国出生、后入籍日本并当选为日本参议院议员的学者。中国外交部指控这位63岁的议员在台湾和历史等问题上“散布谬论”，并“严重损害中国主权”。 石平出生于四川省，毕业于北京大学，后于1988年前往日本。他对此做出了强硬回应。他在一份声明中说：“我本来在中国就没有任何财产，也没有打算去中国。”“被制裁反而是一种荣誉，就像从中国政府那里获得了一枚勋章。” 中国官方媒体迅速放大了这场攻击。《环球时报》前总编辑胡锡进将石平与美国国务院前华裔官员余茂春相提并论，称其为“大汉奸”，并警告“报应的噩梦将追随他一辈子”。这一事件凸显了中国共产党对全球华人社群中批评其政策的成员采取日益强硬的姿态，彰显了一种基于种族而非国籍的权威。 这种官方的民族主义狂热也正在塑造国内话语，但并非没有暴露出其内部矛盾。中国国家主席习近平最近在纪念二战结束80周年的阅兵式上的讲话，与2015年的类似讲话相比，提及“和平”的次数显著减少，这一点尤为引人注目。这一次，习近平将这个时代的核心抉择定义为“和平还是战争，对话还是对抗”。 这种日益强硬的言辞得到了像张雪峰这样的民族主义网红的拥护，他是一位拥有超过2000万粉丝的著名考研辅导名师。在阅兵期间，他激动地宣布，如果中国攻打台湾，他个人将捐款至少5000万元人民币（700万美元）。他的言论迅速走红，但反应却出人意料地两极分化。 河南省官方媒体大象新闻采取了不同寻常的举动，发表了一篇措辞严厉的评论，指责张雪峰为了“流量和变现”而玩世不恭地利用爱国主义。文章质问：“你是想呼吁中国人打一场针对中国同胞的战争吗？……张雪峰，别再误人子弟了。” 一家官方媒体对如此政治正确的立场公开提出批评，是一个引人注目的异议信号。然而，在遭到民族主义网民的强烈反弹后，这篇文章被悄然删除。这一事件揭示了中国内部一种复杂的动态：尽管习近平政府积极培养民族主义，但仍有相当一部分公众——甚至包括一些官方媒体内部人士——对不受约束的好战言论保持警惕。这表明，尽管经过多年的高强度宣传，北京塑造公众舆论的努力并未完全成功，为独立——乃至潜在的反对——思想留下了存在的空间。

Fractured Globe: Economic Tremors and Political Upheaval Grip Nations from Washington to Beijing WASHINGTON — A cascade of unsettling economic data and explosive political crises ricocheted across the globe Tuesday, revealing deep fissures in the world’s leading powers and volatile instability in smaller nations. In the United States, a jarring government admission that the labor market is profoundly weaker than previously reported cast new doubt on the country’s economic resilience. Simultaneously, the seemingly unstoppable artificial intelligence boom, which has propped up Wall Street, showed signs of strain. Across the Atlantic, the French government collapsed for the second time in less than a year, plunging a core European Union member into political paralysis.[1][2] In the Middle East, an audacious Israeli airstrike targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar threatened to ignite a wider, more perilous regional conflict.[3][4] And in Asia, a popular revolt in Nepal against government overreach toppled its prime minister, while in China, the state’s escalating nationalist rhetoric manifested in both the sanctioning of foreign critics and a fervent, yet contested, domestic debate over war. These are not isolated incidents. They are interconnected symptoms of a world grappling with economic uncertainty, shifting geopolitical alliances, and ideological battles that are increasingly spilling across borders, both digital and physical. Part I: The Shaky Pillars of the Global Economy The day’s news began with a stark economic reality check from the U.S. Labor Department. In a preliminary annual revision, the agency announced that American employers had created 911,000 fewer jobs in the year ending in March than previously estimated.[5] The revision, the largest on record, effectively halved the reported job growth, painting a picture of a labor market that was losing steam long before recent signs of a slowdown became apparent.[5] The corrected data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics adds significant weight to fears of a cooling economy and complicates the Federal Reserve's path ahead of its interest rate decision next week. While traders at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange still largely anticipate a modest quarter-point rate cut, the dramatically weaker jobs picture has intensified concerns that the market has been operating on flawed assumptions. The focus now shifts to Thursday's Consumer Price Index data, seen as the last major economic report that could sway the Fed's calculus. This undercurrent of economic anxiety was amplified by a separate Wall Street Journal report signaling that the "surprise factor" for NVIDIA, the titan of the AI chip industry, is fading. For two years, the company has stunned investors with astronomical growth, becoming a bellwether for the entire AI revolution that has buoyed U.S. stock markets. But its latest quarterly results, while still beating analyst expectations, showed the narrowest margin of growth in nine quarters.[6][7] The company’s stock has fallen 6% since the announcement, fueling a critical question preoccupying global investors: Is the AI boom a bubble, and if so, when will it pop?[8][9] Analysts point to two factors dulling NVIDIA’s shine. The first is the simple law of large numbers: it is exponentially harder for a corporate giant to maintain torrid growth rates. The second is more structural: NVIDIA’s complete dependence on a single manufacturer, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), creates a supply chain bottleneck that no amount of financial success can easily overcome. While no definitive evidence of a stall has emerged, the report reflects a growing mood of caution on Wall Street, where the outsized performance of a handful of tech behemoths has masked broader economic vulnerabilities. This nervousness in the U.S. market contrasted with a policy-induced sugar rush in China. In Hong Kong, shares of beleaguered Chinese real estate companies, led by Country Garden and Shimao Group, soared after major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen relaxed home-purchasing restrictions. The property sector index saw its largest single-day gain in nearly two months. Yet this rally does little to alter the grim landscape of China’s property crisis. Even with Tuesday’s surge of over 30%, Shimao’s stock remains down 63% for the year, while the broader real estate sector has lost 11%. The move is seen less as a solution and more as a desperate measure to prop up a failing industry that has been a primary engine of Chinese growth. According to an analyst at Daiwa, the market's ebullience may be driven by rumors that China's Politburo will unveil a more substantial real estate support package at a meeting later this month. Part II: Geopolitical Fault Lines Widen As economic anxieties mounted, geopolitical tensions flared with Israel’s unprecedented strike on Hamas leaders in Doha, Qatar. The attack, targeting senior officials meeting in the Qatari capital, represents a dramatic tactical escalation, taking Israel's war against the group far beyond the confines of Gaza and into the territory of a key U.S. partner.[10][11] Qatar, which hosts the largest American air base in the region, has been a central mediator in the two-year conflict.[3] The Israeli prime minister’s office quickly claimed sole responsibility for the operation, stating it was an "entirely independent Israeli action" and that the U.S. was notified only moments before it occurred. The move drew a sharp rebuke from Qatar and complicated Washington’s diplomatic balancing act. Reports on the strike’s effectiveness were conflicting. The Wall Street Journal noted it was unclear if the intended targets—identified as Hamas leaders Khalil al-Hayya and Zaher Jabarin—were killed. However, Bloomberg, citing sources from Al Jazeera in Doha, reported that the leadership, including al-Hayya, had survived the attack. The discrepancy highlights the fog of the conflict, but the strategic implications are clear: Israel has signaled its willingness to hunt Hamas leaders anywhere, regardless of diplomatic sensitivities.[4][11] This echoes past Israeli operations, including assassinations in Jordan in 1997, Dubai in 2010, and a deadly bombing that killed Hamas’s top political leader in Iran in July 2024.[11] Meanwhile, in Europe, one of the continent’s most powerful governments imploded. French Prime Minister François Bayrou and his government were ousted after losing a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly by a wide margin of 364 to 194.[2][12] The vote, triggered by a deeply unpopular budget proposal, marks the second time President Emmanuel Macron’s government has fallen in under a year, underscoring the profound political dysfunction gripping the nation.[1] In a last-ditch plea to lawmakers, Bayrou had described France’s fiscal situation as a "silent, secret, invisible, and unbearable hemorrhage," warning of a "financial doomsday." His words failed to sway a fractured parliament where populist parties from the left and right accuse the political establishment of using fear tactics to maintain power. France’s national debt has ballooned to 114% of its economic output, and its borrowing costs now exceed its defense budget. Macron is expected to accept Bayrou’s resignation and appoint a new prime minister, but observers are deeply pessimistic that any new government can achieve stability, heralding a new and turbulent chapter in French politics.[13] Further east, Hungary, long Russia’s most steadfast energy partner within the EU, took a significant step toward diversification by signing a 10-year natural gas deal with Shell.[14][15] Starting in 2026, Hungary will receive two billion cubic meters of gas annually via pipelines through the Czech Republic and Germany.[16][17] While Budapest has long resisted the EU’s plan to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027, its hand may have been forced by recent events.[18] Analysts suggest Ukraine’s recent destruction of a key pipeline supplying Russian energy to Slovakia served as a wake-up call, demonstrating that transit routes are no longer guaranteed. The move is seen as a pragmatic, if reluctant, pivot by a government that appears to be bowing to geopolitical realities. Part III: The Battle for Hearts, Minds, and the Internet The power of popular anger was on vivid display in Nepal, where the government of Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli resigned following days of violent protests that left 19 people dead.[19][20] The crisis was ignited last week when the government, citing a court order, announced a sweeping ban on major social media platforms, including X, YouTube, Instagram, and WhatsApp.[21] The move sparked immediate and furious protests, with demonstrators clashing with police and storming barricades around the national parliament.[22] Grievances quickly expanded beyond the internet ban to include long-simmering anger over government corruption.[21] Late Monday, the government buckled, rescinding the ban.[19] But it was too late. On Tuesday, as protesters set fire to his private residence, Oli, a veteran communist politician serving his fourth term, stepped down.[19] "As a so-called government, you should have had the guts to accept any form of protest," one protester was quoted as saying. "Instead, you showed your true ugly face—killing, destroying, and failing the children who want their country to be beautiful and safe." Ironically, one of the few platforms spared from the ban was China’s TikTok, which observers noted had complied with government directives. The episode underscores a global struggle over free expression, where citizens are pushing back against governments attempting to control the digital public square. That struggle over expression took a different form in China, which launched a punitive campaign against a new perceived "traitor." Beijing announced sanctions against Shi Ping, a Chinese-born academic who became a naturalized Japanese citizen and was elected to Japan’s upper house of parliament. China's Foreign Ministry accused the 63-year-old of "spreading fallacies" on issues like Taiwan and history and of "severely harming China's sovereignty."[23] Shi Ping, who was born in Sichuan province and graduated from Peking University before leaving for Japan in 1988, responded with defiance. "I have no property in China to begin with, nor do I plan to go to China," he said in a statement. "Being sanctioned is, on the contrary, an honor, like receiving a medal from the Chinese government." Chinese state-affiliated media quickly amplified the attack. Hu Xijin, the former editor of the nationalist tabloid Global Times, branded Shi Ping a "great traitor" on par with Miles Yu, a former U.S. State Department official of Chinese descent, warning that the "nightmare of retribution will haunt him for the rest of his life." The episode highlights the Chinese Communist Party’s increasingly aggressive posture toward members of the global Chinese diaspora who criticize its policies, asserting a form of authority based on ethnicity rather than citizenship.[24][25][26] This official nationalist fervor is also shaping domestic discourse, but not without revealing internal contradictions. A recent speech by President Xi Jinping at a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II was notable for its sharp reduction in references to "peace" compared to a similar address in 2015. This time, Xi defined the era's central choice as one between "peace or war, dialogue or confrontation."[27][28] This hardening rhetoric has been embraced by nationalist influencers like Zhang Xuefeng, a prominent education consultant with over 20 million followers. During the parade, he passionately declared that if China were to invade Taiwan, he would personally donate at least 50 million yuan ($7 million). His remarks went viral, but the reaction was surprisingly divided. In an unusual move, Da Xiang News, an official media outlet in Henan province, published a scathing critique, accusing Zhang of cynically using patriotism for "traffic and monetization." The article asked, "Do you want to call on Chinese people to fight a war against Chinese compatriots? ... Stop misleading people, Zhang Xuefeng." The public rebuke from a state-owned paper against such a politically correct stance was a remarkable sign of dissent. However, after a backlash from nationalist netizens, the article was quietly deleted. The incident reveals a complex dynamic within China: while Xi's government actively cultivates nationalism, a significant portion of the public—and even some within the state media apparatus—remains wary of unchecked warmongering.[29][30][31] It suggests that despite years of intense propaganda, Beijing's efforts to mold public opinion have not been entirely successful, leaving a space for independent—and potentially oppositional—thought to persist. 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Learn more Washington Post political analysis style Washington Post economic reporting style US jobs data revision analysis NVIDIA growth concerns and AI bubble Israel strike on Hamas leaders in Doha strategic implications French government collapse Macron analysis Nepal social media ban and political crisis Hungary diversification from Russian gas China's nationalist rhetoric under Xi Jinping analysis China's pressure on overseas diaspora critics